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HOHENHEIMER DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE Wie der Monetarismus

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HOHENHEIMER
DISKUSSIONSBEITRÄGE
Wie der Monetarismus nach Deutschland kam
Zum Paradigmenwechsel der Geldpolitik
in den frühen 1970er Jahren
von
Heinz-Peter Spahn
Nr. 258/2005
Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (520)
Universität Hohenheim, 70593 Stuttgart
ISSN 0930-8334
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USA gesehen. Die monetäre Perspektive war offenbar so in den Hintergrund gedrängt, daß
beispielsweise die Geldmenge in den gängigen Lehrbüchern kaum erwähnt worden sei (&D
JDQMeltzer 1998). Der Report der amerikanischen &RPPLVVLRQRQ0RQH\DQG&UHGLW
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Für die Zeit nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg wurden zudem deflatorische Gefahren befürchtet, so daß Konzepte zur Geldmengenverknappung ± angesichts der soeben überwundenen
Weltwirtschaftskrise ± riskant erschienen. Die Prognose war zwar falsch, aber gerade im
amerikanischen Fall ließ die aufgelaufene riesige Staatsschuld eine Bekämpfung der Inflation über Geldpolitik als fiskalisch zu teuer erscheinen; höhere Zinskosten waren im Staats-
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haushalt nicht willkommen. Aus diesem Grund wurde primär die Fiskalpolitik als Instrument
gegen inflatorische Tendenzen empfohlen (Johnson 1963, Friedman 1968, Neubauer 1977).
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Some experts consider that the central task of monetary authorities is to keep a tight control on
the supply of money. If, it is argued, the central bank has both the will and the means to control
the supply of money, and either keeps it fixed or allows it to increase only in step with the growing needs of a growing economy, all will be well. [...] Our view is different. Though we do not regard the supply of money as an unimportant quantity, we view it as only part of a wider structure
of liquidity in the economy. [...] It is the whole liquidity position that is relevant to spending decisions and our interest in the supply of money is due to its significance in the whole liquidity picture. [...] The decision to spend thus depends on liquidity in the broad sense, not upon immediate access to the money. [...] The spending is not limited by the amount of money in existence
but it is related to the amount of money people think they can get hold of, whether by receipts of
income (for instance from sales), by disposal of capital assets or by borrowing.
Radcliffe-Report (1959: §§ 388-390)
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The money-quality of assets is something imposed by the business habits of people; it is attached in varying degree to various assets [...]. To label something as 'money', the supply of
which is to behave according to rules laid down by legal authority, is to build on shifting sand.
Richard S. Sayers (1957: 5)
Once interest-bearing financial assets are admitted as part of the 'money supply' (and [...] it is
impossible to exclude them if the notion of 'controlling the money supply' is to have any credibility) there is no clear demarcation line to be drawn between 'monetary' and 'non-monetary' financial assets. Any broad definition of the money supply is therefore arbitrary since it is invariably
surrounded by a spectrum of 'liquid assets' which are not comprised in it but which are close
substitutes to it.
Nicolas Kaldor (1982: 72)
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The fact that spending is not Iimited by the amount of money in existence is sometimes argued
by reference to the velocity of circulation of money. It is possible for example to demonstrate
statistically that during the last few years the volume of spending has greatly increased while
the supply of money has hardly changed; the velocity of circulation of money has increased. We
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have not made more use of this concept because we cannot find any reason for supposing, or
any experience in monetary history indicating, that there is any limit to the velocity of circulation;
it is a statistical concept that tells us nothing directly of the motivation that influences the level of
total demand.
Radcliffe-Report (1959: § 391)
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Geldsubstitute können sich [...] keineswegs bilden, weil eine Nachfrage nach Zentralbankgeld
nicht befriedigt wird. Ihre markttheoretische Funktion kann allein darin bestehen, ein Ansteigen
des Zinssatzes zu konterkarieren. [...] Die Stabilität der Geldnachfrage wird nicht dadurch erschüttert, daß plötzlich in größeren Umfang Kreditkarten verwendet werden, sondern dann bestätigt, wenn der Zinssatz steigt und sich als Folge die Geldhaltung vermindert.
Hajo Riese (1986: 38f)
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Brunner and Meltzer provided an analytical framework capable of yielding either side's predictions, about for example, the significance of monetary impulses in generating inflation, or the effects of fiscal policy on aggregate demand, thus establishing that these issues were empirical
rather than theoretical.
The simple fact remains that a further 30 years of monetarist analysis has not been able to demonstrate the empirical existence of a structurally stable transmission mechanism between money and inflation to the satisfaction of its own practitioners, let alone its critics.
David Laidler (1995: 331, 1989: 1157)
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Es ist schwierig, aus dieser [Fishers] Theorie [...] einen Sinn abzuleiten, weil es nicht klar ist, ob
die Änderung im Geldwert als vorausgesehen oder nicht vorausgesehen angenommen wird. Es
gibt keinen Ausweg aus dem Dilemma, daß, wenn sie nicht vorausgesehen wird, sie keinen
Einfluß auf die laufenden Angelegenheiten haben wird; während, wenn sie vorausgesehen wird,
die Preise von bestehenden Gütern sofort so berichtigt werden, daß die Vorteile, Geld zu halten
und Güter zu halten, sich wieder ausgleichen.
John Maynard Keynes (1936: 120)
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For the future, we envisage the use of monetary measures as not in ordinary times playing
other than a subordinate part in guiding the development of the economy. [...] Monetary mea-
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sures cannot alone be relied upon to keep in nice balance an economy subject to major strains
from both without and within. Monetary measures can help, but that is all. [...] We do not find
any solution of the problem of influencing total demand in more violent manipulation of interest
rates.
Radcliffe-Report (1959: §§ 511, 514)
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The supply of money – whatever that may be made to mean – is not by itself a reliable policy
measure, and the authorities must seek rather to influence the general liquidity situation by operating on rates of interest. Given this approach regulation of the banks is required not because
they are 'creators of money' but because they are the biggest lenders at the shortest (most liquid) end of the range of credit markets. [However] any severely restrictive control of these operations is certain, over a period of time, to be defeated by the development of rival institutions;
during the interim, the community will have suffered loss by interference with the most efficient
channels of lending.
The obstruction to particular channels of finance have had no effect on the pressure of total demand, but have made for much inefficiency in financial organisation.
Radcliffe-Report (1959: §§ 504, 469)
0HOW]HUNRQVWDWLHUWHVSlWHUXQWHU9HUZHLVDXIModigliani (1977)GDV)HVWKDOWHQDQHL
QHU GLVNUHWLRQlUHQ =HQWUDOEDQNSROLWLN VHL GLH OHW]WH %DVWLRQ JHZHVHQ GLH HLQ JHVFKODJHQHU
.H\QHVLDQLVPXVKDEHDXIUHFKWHUKDOWHQZROOHQ"Keynesians began by minimizing the role of
monetary policy but shifted eventually to highlighting the use of monetary policy for shortterm stabilization" (0HOW]HU25). Nun sei aber allerorten eine klare Tendenz zugunsten
einer regelorientierten Politik festzustellen, die im klassischen monetären System schon immer dominiert habe. Die Strategien des Inflation Targeting und der Taylor Rule werden
merkwürdigerweise als Umsetzung monetaristischer Prinzipien gedeutet, obwohl (oder gerade weil?) hier die Notenbankpolitik immer wieder neuen Marktbedingungen angepaßt werden
müsse, zu denen auch Schwankungen der Umlaufgeschwindigkeit (!) gehörten.
Meltzer erwähnt jedoch nicht, daß in diesen modernen Politikstrategien die Geldmenge
als endogene Größe gesehen wird. Damit schließt sich der Kreis zur oben skizzierten Debat
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Das hier gegebene Beispiel des Goldstandards ist dabei nicht überzeugend, da dieses System ge-
rade erst unter der Führerschaft einer diskretionären, allerdings klar am externen Gleichgewicht ausgerichteten Zinspolitik der Bank von England seine Blütezeit erlebte (Eichengreen 1987, Spahn 2001:
97ff).
Allerdings glaubt Meltzer auch nach den Erfahrungen in den USA noch an eine stabile Geldnach-
fragefunktion.
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Mit der Zunahme der wirksamen Nachfrage nimmt [...] die Beschäftigung zu, [...] bis ein Punkt
kommt, an dem keine überschüssige Arbeit zum dann bestehenden Reallohn verfügbar ist. [...]
Die Bedingungen des strengen Gleichgewichts erfordern daher, daß die Löhne und Preise [...]
im gleichen Verhältnis wie die Ausgabe steigen, wenn die [...] Menge der Produktion und der
Beschäftigung [...] unverändert bleiben soll. Das heißt, wir haben einen Zustand erreicht, in welchem der rohen Mengentheorie des Geldes [...] völlig genügt wird; denn die Produktion ändert
sich nicht, und die Preise steigen im genauen Verhältnis zu MV [d.h. zur umlaufenden Geldmenge].
John Maynard Keynes (1936: 245)
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It is puzzling to find it put forward as a discovery that a higher inflation rate will not increase the
full-employment level of employment: Keynes and Keynesians would not have claimed otherwise. [...] The Lucasians, by denying the possibility of involuntary unemployment – indeed, they
profess not to know what it means – have given no reason why anyone should be interested in
their trade-off even if it existed. In fact, the world that they describe quite plainly needs no macro-policy. Keynesians were concerned with the problem of pushing the economy to its natural
rate, not beyond it. If the economy is already there, we can all go home.
Frank Hahn (1982: 74f)
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ist daher nicht verwunderlich, daß die Zuwachsraten von Effektiv- und Tariflöhnen nach wie vor
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hat, daß das Preisniveau um drei Prozent im Jahr steigt.
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Gleichtakt vor sich geht – im nationalen wie im internationalen Rahmen.
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Der Z[entral]B[ank]R[at] gab vor, die Preisniveauentwicklung im Griff zu haben. In Wahrheit
stand er über weite Strecken fast hilflos der Geldmengenerhöhung gegenüber. Sein größer Beitrag zum 'Wirtschaftswunder' bestand darin, daß er diese nicht als Problem für die Bewahrung
der Preisstabilität ansah, sondern entsprechend seiner produktionspolitischen Orientierung als
Schmiermittel der 'Mengenkonjunktur', jedenfalls solange die Tarifpartner nicht mit einer entsprechenden Erhöhung des Lohnstückkostenniveaus reagierten.
Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich (1998: 429)
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Das Substrat der wirtschaftlichen Interessen in einer arbeitsteiligen Wirtschaft ist das Geld. Die
Menge und damit auf die Dauer auch der Wert des Geldes sollten daher nicht zur Disposition
derer stehen, die es begehren – auch nicht zur Disposition des Staates [...]. Die um das Geld
Streitenden sollten sich die Menge des insgesamt verfügbaren Geldes also von außen vorgeben lassen. [...] Stabilität des Geldwerts ist dann kein Ziel mehr, sondern eine Spielregel.
Sachverständigenrat (1974: Zf. 372, vgl. 374ff, 1972: Zf. 352ff, 395).
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Daß es einer Kontrolle der Geldschöpfung bedarf, kann nicht zweifelhaft sein. Sie ist ein Grunderfordernis der arbeitsteiligen Wirtschaftsordnung. Es ist nicht eine nach Deutschland mit Verspätung gelangte Modeerscheinung, sich Sorge um die Kontrolle der Geldschöpfung zu machen. Es ist vielmehr von jeher als eine vorrangige Verantwortung des Staates angesehen worden, für 'gutes', wertstabiles Geld zu sorgen.
Horst Bockelmann (1974: 159)
Der Übergang der Bundesbank von einem mehr liquiditätsorientierten Konzept zur Zentralbankgeldsteuerung ist auch nicht nur vor dem Hintergrund der geldtheoretischen Diskussion zu sehen, die schon Jahre vorher einsetzte, sondern auch als Reaktion auf Veränderungen in den institutionellen Gegebenheiten, insbesondere der Aufgabe des Systems fester Wechselkurse.
Helmut Schlesinger (1976: 451)
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